First Election Prediction

Taking a cue from Mustafa, I submitted my prediction to the James Bow Federal Election Pool.
I will probably revise it in a week or two, but for now my gut says this:

We’re Better Off With Harper and His Sweater Vests: 142
The Green Shift: 100
The Socialist Sovereigntists: 34
Jack Layton, of the NEW Democrats: 29
Without Party Affiliation: 2
The Liberal Candidate for Central Nova: 1

Voter Turnout: 56%

By early October, the Conservatives will flirt with majority territory, but in the end the Bloc will hold enough of their support in Quebec. Add in the Liberals continued strength in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, and Harper will get closer, but not quite there.

The Liberals and NDP tread water, which is probably the worst case scenario for them. Well, not the worst case, and certainly better than being decimated, but it leaves them in limbo. Dion and Layton both hold the fort, more or less (Dion up 5 seats, Layton down 2), so it’s not a ringing endorsement of their leadership, but it’s not a defeat, so they won’t be compelled to resign.

The outlook will probably change, but through 3 1/2 days I see a pretty similar landscape to the one that was just dissolved. Nobody’s had a really good first week, except for Elizabeth May, and as Andrew Steele of The Globe has pointed out, getting into the debate is actually a mixed blessing for the Greens.


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